Ineffective Theory

Links for September 2021

The obvious. I suspect there’s a general principle: Alice will never convince Bob unless (Bob thinks) there’s a chance that Bob will somehow convince Alice. This makes all advice addressing “how to convince people” kind of pointless.

The long road to a faculty post.

Lance Fortnow on the rise of machine learning and its relation to expertise:

There’s a more personal issue–people spend their entire careers creating their expertise in some area, and that expertise is often a source of pride and a source of income. If someone comes along and tells you that expertise is no longer needed, or even worse irrelevant or that it gets in the way, you might feel protective, and under guise of our expertise tear down the learning algorithm.

A website for comparing different sources of weather forecasts, depending on where you live. For most places (including where I live), NWS seems to be solidly middle-of-the-pack.

Tom Ricks on U.S. military leadership. Is there any reason to believe that military leadership is fundamentally different from leadership of any other large part of the government?

Various studies, reported by Mankiw, on the effect of increased tax rates in Europe as compared with the U.S.